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MLB Update: National League
By: Dan Mason June 2, 2008
It's time for the final installment of a 2-part series recapping the baseball season to date. If you have been unable to pay close attention to the games up to this point, consider this your chance at redemption. Just spend a few minutes and familiarize yourself with the division leaders, players to watch, and unfolding storylines: Could the Triple Crown drought finally come to an end? Will a player bat over .400? Who will be the Mets' manager come season's end? And be sure to check out last week's issue of The Father Life for a look at the American League. Then, consider yourself prepared to spend the rest of your summer nights and weekends on the couch--lemonade in hand, taking in the sights and sounds from the old ballpark....because you must not have anything else to do... **All numbers based on games played through Friday, May 30. ** NL EAST Philadelphia Phillies (32-24) Pros: Monster offense – 2nd in runs (293), 4th in hits (511), and tops in HR (79)... It isn't often a 2nd baseman is in the top 5 in HR (17) and RBI (46), but Chase Utley is, and is hitting above .300 to top it off...Jamie Moyer is 45 – and actually pitching well Cons: Team ERA is a little high (3.99) and the rotation is a little shaky after the top 2 starters...Ryan Howard is pounding the ball (16 HR) but needs to be more patient and disciplined (.206, NL-most 78 Ks) Prediction/Suggestion: The Phillies are right on the brink of being elite. One more pitcher would put them over the edge. They lucked out with the Mets struggles, but they might be in a season-long battle with the frugal Florida Marlins. Florida Marlins (30-23) Pros: A huge surprise so far...Hitting the ball extremely well behind Dan Uggla (.308, 16 HR, 38 RBI), Hanley Ramirez (.292, 9 HR, 13 SB), and Josh Willingham (.341, 6 HR, 16 RBI in just 25 games before being injured)...2nd in NL with 76 HR...6th fewest hits allowed (468) in league Cons: High ERA for a team in 2nd place (4.25, 8th in NL)...have only outscored opponents by 3 runs...young pitching staff whose win-loss records don't reflect their high ERA's Prediction/Suggestion: As much of a great story they are, it is unlikely that the Marlins will continue to see this much success. However, even though their pitching might not hold up this year, they have a bright future, and management has given fans hope by signing Ramirez to a multi-year deal. Atlanta Braves (29-26) Pros: Chipper Jones is having a monster year (.409, 12 HR, 35 RBI)...2nd highest team batting average in NL (.281)...best ERA (3.51) and fewest hits (420) allowed in league...3 starters with sub-3.00 ERAs Cons: Aren't hitting as many home runs as one would expect (49, 9th in NL)...3rd from the bottom in stolen bases (19) Prediction/Suggestion: It is hard to find a lot wrong with the Braves. Their biggest weakness is that they are in the same division as the Marlins and Phillies. Aside from trying to get some more speed on the bases, there isn't a huge area of need – other than needing the Marlins to come down off their high horse, and the Phillies to have their usual late summer collapse. New York Mets (26-27) Pros: Ryan Church (.309, 9 HR, 32 RBI), David Wright (.284, 11 HR, 40 RBI), and Jose Reyes (7 HR, 25 RBI, 16 SB) are all under 30 and are stars...Billy Wagner (10 saves, 0.41 ERA) has been nearly un-hittable, and Johan Santana (6-3, 3.41 ERA) has looked superb at times Cons: Big concerns in bottom of rotation...as a team they are remarkably average, ranking in the 7th-12th range for most of the major categories...the Willie Randolph situation is beginning to become a distraction according to some of the players Prediction/Suggestion: The Mets are much better than they are playing right now. Is this a case of the manager not getting enough out of his players? Whatever the reason, the hitters need to do their jobs better or the monumental collapse of last September will not soon be forgotten in Queens. Washington Nationals (23-32) Pros: Tim Redding is having his best season (6-3, 3.59)...2nd highest fielding % in NL (.986)...pitchers have 7th most strikeouts (375) in league Cons: 5th highest opposing batting average in NL (.269)...3rd fewest runs scored (210), fewest hits (426), and worst team batting average (.233) in league...Austin Kearns is batting an anemic .187 Prediction/Suggestion: The Nationals need a lot of work. Given their terrible team batting average, one would expect them to strike out a lot, but they are ranked a reasonable 6th in strikeouts (360); This indicates they are making contact, it just isn't very good contact. Perhaps some extra time in the weight room or some extra batting practice would make a difference. NL CENTRAL Chicago Cubs (34-21) Pros: NL-most 304 runs scored and 541 hits...7 members of lineup are batting above .280, including 5 above .300, resulting in NL-best .284 team average...2nd best ERA in league (3.57)...3rd lowest opposing batting average (.243) Cons: 3rd worst stolen base % in league (67%)...somewhat unsettled at bottom of rotation...6th worst pinch-hit batting average indicates shallow bench Prediction/Suggestion: The Cubs are the best team in the NL right now. Their pitching is strong in slots 1-4, and even the 5th starter situation isn't that bad. The lineup is hitting for power and average, and Kerry Wood has looked impressive in his closer's role. They are a definite contender for the pennant. St. Louis Cardinals (33-23) Pros: 3rd most hits (521) in NL...3rd highest team batting average (.276)...4th best ERA (3.79)...2nd fewest walks allowed (166)...Ryan Ludwick (.327, 13 HR, 39 RBI) has joined Albert Pujols as a monster bat in the middle of the order Cons: Not scoring as many runs as would be expected for a 2nd place team (250, 9th in NL)...not much power beyond Pujols, Ludwick, and Rick Ankeil (who account for 34 of the team's 47 HR)...Closer Jason Isringhausen has blown 6 saves already Prediction/Suggestion: The Cards are a likely playoff team, even in the strong NL Central. Their rotation is solid in all spots, and despite the lack of power outside the middle of the order, the rest of the hitters are smart, and are getting on base for the big guns. Houston Astros (30-26) Pros: Lance Berkman (.384, 17 HR, 47 RBI) is a Triple Crown candidate, and even has 10 SB...4th most runs(264) and HR(58) in NL...NL-most 61 SB Cons: 4th highest ERA (4.46)...2nd most hits allowed (522)...NL-most 76 HR allowed...bottom third of the order is batting below .230 Prediction/Suggestion: The Astros are a great hitting team, but suffer because of their pitching (is there something in the water in the state of Texas?) They have 5 stars in their lineup, and then the opposing pitcher gets a brief reprieve. The Astros also will be hurt by the fact that they play in the NL Central, which features two teams as good or better in terms of hitting, and much better in terms of pitching. Houston will likely be the odd man out come playoff time. Milwaukee Brewers (27-28) Pros: Corey Hart (.296, 6 HR, 9 SB) and Ryan Braun (.299, 14 HR, 39 RBI) are playing well...Ben Sheets (5-1, 2.93 ERA) is finally pitching like the #1 starter that he is Cons: As a team, are in the bottom 5 in runs (229), hits(466), batting average (.249), and ERA (4.46)...other than Sheets, no starter has a winning record, and only Jeff Suppan has an ERA below 4.00 Prediction/Suggestion: The Brewers made great strides last season, but are suffering from their lack of pitching and the vast improvements by other teams in their division. They have solid hitters who are struggling more than last season, but they will need more pitching if they hope to be competitive in coming years. Cincinnati Reds (26-29) Pros: 3rd most HR(60) in league...Brandon Phillips(.295, 10 HR, 9 SB) is on pace for another 30-30 season...Joey Votto (.294, 10 HR) is the real deal...24 year old right Edison Volquez has been lights out (7-2, 1.32 ERA) Cons: Bottom-4 in ERA (4.49) and opposing batting average(.271)...too many members of the lineup aren't hitting (3 players batting below .250)...Not enough pitching after Volquez and hard-luck Aaron Harang (2-7 with a 3.81 ERA) Prediction/Suggestion: The Reds continue their yearly coast through the season. They always seem to go completely unnoticed, not good enough to be a nice surprise, but never so bad to become a storyline. They have a few pieces in place to be good for a long time (Phillips, Votto, and Volquez are all 26 or younger), but still need quite a bit of work. Pittsburgh Pirates (25-29) Pros: 6th most runs in NL (258)...If they have a lead going into the 9th, they can rest easy – Matt Capps is 10 for 10 in save situations...Good power in middle of lineup with Jason Bay, Nate McLouth (13 HR apiece) and Xavier Nady (9 HR) Cons: Terrible 5.05 ERA (worst in majors)...NL-most 255 hits allowed...opposing teams are batting nearly .300 against them...most walks and fewest Ks among NL teams...basically, if it's a pitching stat that isn't blown save %, the Pirates are at or near the bottom Prediction/Suggestion: The Pirates have a decent lineup but their pitching is absolutely atrocious. They don't have a single starter with a winning record, or an ERA below 4.00. They stand no chance of being successful this year. In fact, it is somewhat astonishing that they are only 4 games below .500; this can be chalked up to their above average hitters. NL WEST Arizona Diamondbacks (30-24) Pros: 3rd most runs(274) and walks(211) in NL...3rd lowest ERA(3.67), 2nd fewest hits allowed(437), and 2nd lowest opposing batting average(.241) in league...solid rotation 1-5, led by Brandon Webb(9-2, 3.01 ERA) Cons: Not as many hits as would be expected of a team scoring so many runs...also a fairly low batting average(.258)...some weak spots in the lineup (3 players batting below .250) Prediction/Suggestion: The Diamondbacks should win the NL West, despite some of their flaws. Their pitching is fantastic, and they can drive one out from any spot in the order. Their batting average is somewhat low, but the amount they walk, and their NL-most 19 sac flies accounts for their high run totals. Los Angeles Dodgers (27-27) Pros: 4th highest team batting average in NL (.267)...top-5 in ERA, hits allowed, and walks allowed, and 6th in opposing batting average...loads of talent below the age of 30 Cons: Fewest HR (35) and 2B (81) in NL...ace Brad Penney has an ERA of 5.66...fewest extra base hits (125) in league Prediction/Suggestion: There is nothing out of the ordinary with this team. They have no glaring strengths, nor any glaring weaknesses; they are average in almost all respects. They likely will miss the playoffs, but Jeff Kent is the only position player above the age of 30, so this group should only get better with a few years experience. San Francisco Giants (23-31) Pros: 4th in SB (48)...young LF Fred Lewis (.274, 4 HR, 9 SB) is playing fairly well...Bengie Molina (.333, 6 HR, 36 RBI) is on pace for a career year...23 year-old Tim Lincecum (7-1, 2.33 ERA) seems poised for greatness Cons: 2nd fewest walks drawn in NL (163 – think Bonds' absence has any affect here? He walked 132 times by himself last season)...2nd fewest runs (210) and HR (39)...2nd most walks allowed (223)...Barry Zito (1-8, 5.56 ERA) is turning into a very expensive 5th starter Prediction/Suggestion: The Giants may be one of the worst 3rd place teams ever. They would be last in any other division, but the Padres and Rockies are somehow even worse than the Giants this season. They may want to try and trade Zito (if his stock hasn't fallen too much) to a contender for some bats; there is clearly something affecting him in SF, and he is young enough that he may be able to bounce back given the right situation. San Diego Padres (21-34) Pros: 3rd best SB success rate (78%)...2nd most sac flies (17)...1B Adrian Gonzalez's success continues (.279, 15 HR, 44 RBI)...Jake Peavy was pitching well (4-3, 2.91 ERA) before going on the DL Cons: Worst offense in the league (last in runs and OBP, 2nd to last in 2B, SLG%, OPS, team batting average, and hits)...striking out more than any other team(446 Ks)...Jake Peavy is now on the DL Prediction/Suggestion: The Padres are struggling in virtually all areas. They don't have a single starter batting above .300, and have several starters batting in the .220-range. They do have some young players and an ace in Peavy. If they are patient, and allow their young guys to mature, they should contend in a couple years, especially in this division. Colorado Rockies (20-35) Pros: Garret Atkins (.315, 8 HR, 30 RBI) and Matt Holliday (.321, 8 HR, 8 SB) are stars...5th most SB in league (46)...Aaron Cook (7-3, 3.36 ERA) is off to the best start of his career Cons: Bottom-5 in runs, HR, and team batting average...2nd highest ERA in NL(4.94)...3rd most hits allowed...Rookie of the Year runner up Troy Tulowitski is batting a mere .152 in an injury-filled season to date Prediction/Suggestion: What happened to the Rockies? After their improbable run to the World Series, they seem to have completely lost it. Last year's ace Jeff Francis is pitching miserably, and the lineup is struggling aside from a select few. The Rockies have had to deal with injuries, but they have to worry that last season's improved pitching may have been an anomaly. Dan Mason is a new graduate with a Bachelor's in Accounting. He day-dreams about being in the wilderness, and can't wait to be married in August. You can read his other work at http://www.helium.com/users/432252/show_articles. |
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